Science and technology is always an important component of human culture. Science directs technological innovation and technology accelerates the progress of science. Both are clearly distinct yet closely related.

Since the last century, the modern scientific and technological revolution has brought rich cultural achievements. Now, at this junction of the two centuries, we ask what will be the main trend of science and technology in the next century; what will their future look like; how should we evaluate the future of human culture? These are subjects both for futurology and for philosophy. In this article, I shall attempt a concise answer to these questions.

As the development of science is closely related to human culture, the different cultural backgrounds of Western and Eastern societies generated different paths for science. Western peoples through scientific exploration tried to understand the cosmic structure from the micro point of view, while Eastern people endeavored to discover the elementary structure of all matter from a macro point of view. From Shang to Han dynasties, China always led the way in scientific civilization. Why then did Chinese science fall behind after the seventeenth century when in the West a veritable Renaissance spread widely in Europe?

The famous physicist Li Zhendao in a speech at Fudan University in November 1992 said, "When we anticipate the 21st century, we must understand the principal problem in contemporary science. Only when these problems are fully understood is it possible that a breakthrough be made. . . . Once the principal problems are grasped, other problems can be readily solved." Thus a grasp of the principal problems in contemporary science can help to understand the development of science and technology in the century to come.

Whenever we try to recollect those outstanding scientists who made important contributions to the civilization of mankind since the Renaissance, and especially since the 19th century, the first to come to mind are Copernicus, Galileo, Newton, Faraday, Plank, Michelson and Einstein. In this list almost all are famous physicists. The helio-centric theory put forward by Copernicus and Galileo, the three laws of Newton’s dynamics, Faraday’s theory of electronic magnetism and Einstein’s theory of relativity are all outstanding achievements in physics. Their application to technology resulted in the progress of human civilization. So we can conclude without hesitation that in the 19th and the 20th centuries the progress of civilization is owed to physics.

With the passing of time, more urgent and exact questions are presented to science and technology for still more advance in human civilization. Some problems that have puzzled humankind over a long period of time, such as why human beings must age and die, what is the nature of life and what is the essence of human being, have come up once again for discussion. This challenges the present technology, and the new problems cannot be solved by relying only on physical science and technology. The theory of evolution established by Charles Darwin in the 19th century has opened a totally new field for biology on the individual level and laid the foundation for the development of modern biology. But the new approaches to clarifying the phenomenon of life were not discovered until 1944 when the famous Austrian theoretical physicist and the founder of wave dynamics, E. Schrödinger, published "What is Life". This explained the essence of life through the theory of thermodynamics and quantum physics and elucidated the material structure of the organism, the sustenance of life and the heredity and variation of living things. This book played a major role in diverting the attention of some physicists to the problems of life science and urging biologists to investigate the mystery of life through the achievements of physics and chemistry. Some bold assumptions were made, especially the assumption that genetic material is a kind of organic macromolecule and that genetic characteristics were passed on through chromesomes in the form of a "code" --which later proved to be true. In the 1950’s Click and Watson, under the influence of Shrödinger’s theory and after careful analysis of the data concerning genetic material, suggested the double helix model for the structure for DNA. The establishment of the model marked a new age for the research of living materials on the molecular level.

The rise of molecular biology has brought new hope to the science of life. What exactly is life is the question natural science has long tried to answer. The development of molecular biology has led research on life in the direction of elucidating the basic structure and mechanism of the organism and has accelerated especially the advance of medical genetics. The achievement of molecular biology, along with computer science and modern physics and chemistry, can change our world greatly and can discover an effective way to solve many problems which concern humankind itself. Moreover, biotechnology, under the direction of molecular biology, will take on an entirely new aspect. For these reasons we can infer that biology will become one of the most attractive and promising branches of natural science in the next century.

The elementary purpose of life science is to reveal the origin of life, the mechanism of evolution, heredity and individual development, and the mystery of memory and thought. In essence, life science is deeply concerned with the development of humankind. A kind of driving force from both inside and outside is needed for the development of humankind and the progress of civilization. In the future this can be supplied by biotechnology. Hence, it can reasonably be imagined that the next century will focus largely on biotechnology as the future of civilization.

The invention and application of biotechnology has a long history. In ancient times, whether in China or in foreign countries, people gradually selected various kinds of animals and plants to domesticate or turn into crops. Observing the variation of species, they began to notice different characteristics of the species and tried to keep these species at an excellent qualitative level. This can be regarded as the beginning of the application of biotechnology. In the middle of the 18th century the industrial revolution in the Western countries accelerated agricultural production. The appearance of Darwin’s theory of evolution paved the way for recognizing the law of growth and variation of living beings. As a result the biotechniques of breeding came to be governed by exact and effective scientific theory. The experimental method was adopted to discover the pattern of variation, and the monk, Gregory Mendel, found two genetic laws by experimenting with peas. Mendel’s work demonstrated that genetics had undergone the transition from phenomenal description to theoretical analysis and from empirical to theoretical science. Modern genetics and biotechnology owe much to Mendel’s research in the last century.

Breeding in agricultural production is an example. Some method of breeding, such as sexual hybridization, seed selection and the creation of distinct varieties by physical means and chemicals were widely accepted soon after human society, for its livelihood, became engaged mainly in agriculture rather than hunting. These methods, in essence, were a kind of genetic engineering on the individual level.

With the advent of the 20th century, owing to the rapid increase of industrial production and the explosion of world population, the area under cultivation diminished. Moreover the aggravation of environmental pollution and the deterioration of the global climate has brought many unfavorable conditions to agricultural production. In some countries environmental pollution has caused soil erosion to thousands of hectares of good farmland. In Africa, the harsh climate constantly turns farmland to desert, making arable land more and more scarce. Obviously under such circumstances, the regular method of breeding cannot satisfy the basic requirement of human existence. Though traditional biotechnologies do not lose the potential for developing new varieties, they have certain inevitable weaknesses. In the second place two species that are distant in evolution cannot be matched, so that the good characteristics are hard to transplant to one variety. Thirdly, repeated sexual hybridization results in a complexity of characteristics for the new generation which in turn will make the next hybridization more difficult. As for agricultural production, with the progress of human civilization, if a way to solve this were not found a crisis endangering the future of human society surely would spring up. Thus, the challenge of a better biotechnology was laid out before scientists.

A new technique of breeding, somatic cell hybridization, has been developed since the 1960’s. To explain this simply, a specially devised procedure is used to cross-breed two or more cells from different species, so that the different chromosomes and genes co-exist in one hybrid cell; this hybrid cell is then transplanted to a normal host plant as a medium for growth into a complete and normal individual. Somatic cell hybridization is superior to sexual hybridization in the following aspects: 1. Somatic cell hybridization overcomes the restriction of non-affinity in sexual hybridization. 2. Rich varieties of cells ensure the availability of the material for cross-breeding. 3. The fusion of cells enlarges the sphere of cross-breeding. 4. The time needed for a new variety to grow into a mature plant is shortened. This implies as well the above wide adaptability of cell hybridization; its application will lead to a new agricultural revolution. This is a brilliant example of the combination of biotechnology with productive practice. This new biotechnique makes it possible to increase the yield of crops and to produce more nutritious food. It also can strengthen the resistance of crops to unfavorable climate, diseases and destructive insects. In addition, the rich varieties of cultivated crops can be retained and the gene resources consisting in the wild species conserved.

Nowadays, the crops created by somatic cell hybridization are very popular in a certain sphere and have produced good results. But with the success of somatic cell hybridization for plants, a new question has surfaced: can somatic cell hybridization be extended to animal cells? Some scientists have already striven to do so. Though there are still many technical difficulties, we can expect a brilliant future for this research which surely will have far-reaching influence upon the future of humankind.

Since ancient times, people have hoped for longevity, but have not been able to resist the natural law of aging and dying. In ancient China, many Taoist priests believed in alchemy and tried in vain to find a way of extending their lives. Tracing the real cause of their failure, we cannot help deriding their ignorance of science. The pills prepared by those Taoist priests contained heavy metal which is deadly. Now civilization has advanced; at the end of the 20th century science and technology are surging forward at a tremendous speed, and biotechnology has risen to new heights. At this time of transition the "task of investigating the cause of aging and death, which is deeply related to the progress of civilization, is put before biologists throughout the world. To this end, biologists are engaged in research using various techniques and so far have made encouraging progress.

For instance, some biologists believe that aging has much to do with genes. It is probable that aging is caused by a change of gene action when the human being reaches the late period of mature human reproduction. The cell-controlled genes which control the living beings are turned on and then off. The gene products responsible for differentiation and growth when they reach a certain concentration pass the information to special switches in the gene concerning reproduction, turning the switch on. In this way, the individual acquires the capability of reproduction. In the later period of reproduction, the excess of gene product results in a feedback to the gene controlling differentiation and growth so that the "switch" is turned off. This is probably the cause of aging. Though the theory is an imperfect one which needs to be proved by experiments, it has made encouraging progress in the efforts to solve the problem. Aging and dying are accepted as common sense, yet people still have never given up hope for longevity. The history of mankind suggests that with the advance of civilization and further adaptation to environment, we shall acquire higher flexibility and a stronger capacity for survival, so that life expectancy gradually and proportionally will be increased.

A great amount of data indicates that the average life span can surpass 100 years; the ancient hope for longevity is not a fancy. Biologists are making unremitting efforts to turn that hope into a fact by finding an effective way of postponing senility.

One more advanced technique is the growth factor, a kind of hormone with many usages, such as healing wounds and helping the growth of children. When injected into the human body it speeds up the metabolism so that fresh cells are produced more quickly and dead cells are discharged more effectively. This has many advantages: efficacy, convenience and minor side-effects. This method can be expected to become important in the next century.

Molecular biology has made great contributions to the advance of medical genetics. Since ancient times genetic diseases have been a difficult challenge for medical science. Modern biotechnology may serve as a promising tool to solve this problem by disclosing the nature of genetic diseases and providing prerequisite conditions for the treatment of these diseases. Modern biotechnology is able to focus on the ultimate cause of genetic disease--the chromosome where the variation has taken place. New technology helps to devise better procedures such as gene recombination to cure such diseases. At last the diagnostic technique for genetic diseases has been aimed directly at the detection of DNA instead of at the chromosome and protein. The technique of gene diagnosis has great clinical significance and it can be used to detect genetic disease with excellent accuracy, at great speed and without harmful effects to the patient; thus it has provided clinical medicine with an effective diagnostic method. In theory, genetic disease can be cured by gene transplantation, that is, to eliminate the abnormal variant from the cells of patients with genetic diseases and then put in normal genes. Though this therapy is still in the experimental stage with animals as its subjects, it promises a bright future. Gene therapy is a dream no more, but is waiting to be cultivated in order to cure patients so as to strengthen the potential to resist diseases and better adjust to the environment,

In sum, biotechnology has emerged under the impact of productive practice, with experimental research in molecular biology and genetics as its prelude. It not only has provided industrial and agricultural production with useful tools, but also perfects itself in the course of its application. This is the general trend of biotechnology.

If we suppose that biotechnology will be the mainstream of technological culture in the next century, how will it influence the development of science and society? Of course, it can be only speculation, but it seems inevitable that the rapid development of biotechnology will lead to a great leap forward for human civilization, for advantages belonging solely to biotechnology can have immense impact on the future. These advantages are: 1. The recycling of the biological supply can provide the raw material so that there is no lack of resources; and 2. Low investment, a short period for generation, high economic benefits and wide utility of the products. All this suggests that biotechnology will be the leading industry in the next century and biological products will come to occupy the market. A dominant reason for biotechnology being so attractive is that it meets the requirements of the advance of civilization. The rapid development of science and technology and the rich varieties of the means of sustenance has made it possible for humankind to develop. Under such circumstances the rise of biotechnology brings hope for a solution of problems, for it can be used not only to modernize agriculture and industry, but also to solve environmental, ecological and health problems.

Science and man should never be placed in opposed positions. The more advanced science becomes, the more freedom humans acquire, so that civilization is driven forward. It was on the foundations of classical biology that modern biology was built. Biotechnology is an epistemological summary of Darwin’s theory of evolution and the consequence of research in traditional physics, chemistry and biology. It established the goal of medical science. It results in progress for civilization as well as hope for the human future.

Of course, as all is dialectical in nature there is both a positive and a negative side. Hence, we must employ subjective initiative in order to amplify the positive side and to overcome the negative side and make it useful for humankind. We do not suggest a scientism which leaves the development of society out of account, and we oppose a humanism which inhibits the development of science. Only by associating science with the essence of man can we achieve its splendid future. The dialectic of the relation between biotechnology and man has the two sides, positive and negative. Antibiotics as one bioproduct possesses the remarkable ability to kill bacteria, but its improper administration may produce harmful effects on human health. For this reason there will be a thorough and systematic investigation before their complete acceptance. Thus a further demand is placed on biotechnology, namely, to advance only in the direction of benefiting mankind.

It should be pointed out here that contemporary scientists and philosophers have different views on the achievements of molecular biology. Some believe that modern biology is in conflict with social morals and ethics, and that the conflict cannot be compromised. They would engage the doctrine of the mean of the Confucian School and the theory of non-doing of the Taoist School. Close connection between Western and Eastern cultures on the basis of a correct understanding of the spirit of traditional Chinese culture can be beneficial. In contrast, to focus on the negative side and regard the problem as unsolvable will block the development of science and cannot be accepted. History is going forward, as does the human cognitive ability. Only by understanding the dialectical character of science and distinguishing what takes place of necessity from what can be controlled can we devise a splendid blueprint for the contemporary development of science.

This future culture of humankind is the one thing that fuses Western and Eastern cultures and unifies truth, goodness and beauty.